Can the steel price with the weakest demand rise a

Whether the steel price with weak demand can rise against the trend

Abstract: Double coke also has no confidence in rebounding when the demand side continues to weaken. Steel mills continue to suppress the coke price, resulting in the coke has been in a weak position, while the production restriction of coke enterprises also inhibits the demand for coking coal, the coal mine shipping pressure is large, and the coking coal price has a downward trend

looking back at the market since September, the market is basically in a balanced state. Prices only fluctuate back and forth with the news, and there is not enough power to make the balance of supply and demand unbalanced. This week, the fluctuation range of steel price further narrowed, and it is still in a stage of looking for direction, but it should be noted that the later the time is, the worse it will be for short sellers

in the spot market, the steel prices in East China and the production limited areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei remain strong, while the steel prices in most parts of the northeast and South are in a relatively weak state. One is that these areas have no strict environmental protection restrictions, and the supply pressure is much greater than that in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In addition, the transportation of North materials to the South intensifies the backlog of steel in the south

the reason why the steel price cannot fall deeply is that the market has been talking about the poor demand, which is the so-called "poor" but has not reached the expected height. From the perspective of the weekly trading volume monitoring of building materials, it has been maintaining a stable year-on-year increase since September, so the steel price can always be supported by the real demand after the decline, and should not be too pessimistic. On the contrary, with the passage of time, it is mainly cleaning, corrosion prevention, moisture prevention, etc, Bulls' confidence is building

there is still room for decline in the warehouse, waiting for the arrival of winter storage

this week, the total social inventory of steel in China was 9.7958 million tons, decreased by 182200 tons, the social inventory of rebar was 4.2736 million tons, decreased by 172100 tons, the factory warehouse was 2.4305 million tons, decreased by 3.47, the hot coil social warehouse was 2.0724 million tons, increased by 0.98, and the factory warehouse was 86.84 tons, decreased by 6.32

at present, it is mainly based on the control of the supply side that the inventory is still shrinking. Although most steel mills have entered the production restriction stage in advance, there is still some room to expand the scope of subsequent production restriction. It is expected that there is still room for inventory to decline. Winter storage is a variable. In order to cope with the demand that will burst out in the spring next year, The second transmission mode this year cannot guarantee the synchronization of transmission. Either the winter storage will be opened in advance or the strength will exceed the previous level in the same period. In previous years, the winter reserve is usually opened around December, so the later the time is, the worse it will be for short sellers